WFP Indonesia Seasonal Monitoring Bulletin October-December, Q4 2023

We are pleased to share with you the latest Seasonal Monitoring Bulletin Q4 2023. This Bulletin – jointly prepared by Government partners and WFP – provides an overview of the climate situation and impacts on agriculture and food security from October to December 2023 as well as the climate outlook from February to April 2024. Download the bulletin below, available in English and Bahasa Indonesia.

 Key Messages: 

• Start of the Rainy Season

  The Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) stated that most areas had entered the rainy season. However, the number of seasonal zones already experiencing rainfall was significantly lower in comparison with long-term average.

• Peak of rainy season

  BMKG predicts that the peak of the rainy season will occur in the first quarter of 2024, particularly in southern Sumatra, northern Sulawesi, southern Kalimantan, Java, and Papua.

• Status of Food Security

  According to the National Food Agency (NFA), more than half of all provinces in Indonesia were considered food secure by December 2023. Out of 34 provinces, 21 were categorized as stable. However, compared to December of the previous year, the number of provinces facing potential deterioration in their food security is higher.

• Flood disturbances to paddy crops

  According to Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), floods has disrupted the growth of paddy crops from October to December 2023. Aceh suffered the most, with floods affecting more than 7500 hectares of paddy fields in December 2023, leading to harvest failures covering more than 1800 hectares.

• Hydrometeorological hazards increased

  Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) reported 1,871 disasters between October and December 2023. This represents a 110% increase compared to the same period in 2022 (890 disasters). The most affected provinces were West Java and East Kalimantan. About 40% of these disaster are attributed to hydrometeorological hazards.

• Continued impact of El Niño

  BMKG predicted that moderate El Niño condition is expected to persist throughout the first quarter of 2024.

WFP Indonesia together with its partners will keep monitoring the situation and update you as it evolves further. Please contact Gilang Aria Seta (gilang.seta@wfp.org) or Katarina Kohutova (katarina.kohutova@wfp.org) should you have any technical questions on this bulletin.